When Jim Gavin pulled out of the presidential race, voters knew the big effect it would have on this now quite lethargic race. But which of the remaining two candidates would it impact the most?

Before Jim Gavin pulled out of the race a poll from Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks showed Gavin trailing behind Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys with just 15% of the vote.

According to Gabija Gataveckaite, Dublin correspondent at BBC News Northern Ireland, “A sizeable chunk of the 15pc will likely go mostly to Humphreys. Recent elections have shown Fianna Fáil (FF)/ Fianna Gael (FG) are extremely transfer friendly towards each other. We saw figures of around 60pc in the general election.” 

Many Fianna Fail supporters may decide to stay at home come October 24th, but Gatavekaite reckons it’s hard to know. “Technically, Fianna Fail voters can – and will – still vote for Gavin as he will be on the ballot. His transfers will also still count.”   

Gatavekaite also added “Fianna Fail and Fianna Gael are very transfer friendly, so it is likely some Fianna Fail voters will just vote for Fianna Gael. Some may be very annoyed with the handling of the election by the party and rebel and vote for Connolly. Some who are super anti-FG and do not agree with Connolly’s votes may stay at home.” 

The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll also revealed there was 31% undecided voters. With only two choices now for that 31%, things should get interesting.  

“The presidential election now is very much so the establishment V the anti-establishment,” said Gatavekaite. “So, it may not be necessarily people who vote for Heather Humphreys or Catherine Connolly because they like who they are as a person but more so voting for them because they are either anti or pro establishment.” 

“So people who typically vote anti FF/FG or gene pool independents may vote Catherine Connolly and people who vote for ruling parties will vote for Heather Humphreys.” 

Some voters now feel disillusioned with the race. “My friends and I have honestly debated spoiling our votes,” said Aine Moore from Kildare. “We disagree on a lot of things but not on this. We seem to all have a similar opinion that there’s no real strong candidate.” 

Paul Reilly 55, agrees. “It’s all very frustrating. Usually, I always have a candidate I like somewhat. This time neither of the three seem great. I’ll either stay at home or spoil my vote unfortunately.” 

Andrew Kidd 35, from Louth says he’ll “still have Gavin no1 as I don’t agree with any of the other’s views” 

With debates still a determining factor for some of the undecided voters, Gatavekaite said the head-to-head debate could suit either. “Connolly is a very strong debater. She performed very well on The Tonight Show in the first TV debate.  Humphreys was quite poor here and seemed to be quiet. She got her mojo back for The Week in Politics debate on Sunday, but Connolly also performed well here too.   

“There has been little ‘mud slinging’ so far so perhaps that may ramp up on the FG side as they are aware Connolly is ahead in the polls. Connolly hasn’t criticised her opponents directly but blamed the parties in which they got nominations from or governments they were a part of instead. She is likely to stick to this strategy to maintain to push the dignified message.” 

Only time will tell what effect Gavin’s decision to drop out will have on this year’s presidential election.